Armando Lara-Milan: The Return of the Real Economy?

Economic Sociology Seminar presentation by Armando Lara-Milan, University of California, Berkeley.

The Return of the Real Economy?"

Abstract: The voluminous sociological literature on "financialization," "globalization," and "neoliberalism" cannot account for the rapid economic and political disruptions of 2021-2026. By this, I mean volatile equity markets amid energy/mineral shortages, the delinking of trade between China and the US, and the secular increase in interest rates. This talk presents preliminary findings from a developing economic history and an ethnography of active portfolio managers that have been preparing for economic chaos for over a decade. It offers a reconceptualization of the past 40 years towards one that centers monetary debasement alongside historical contingency. What has transpired is the end of the “Great Disinflationary Period,” defined by four one-time historical trends that were rapidly coming to an end long before Covid-19 and Donald Trump. What we are all experiencing is the return of the real economy, now on par with, for the first time in a generation, the financial economy.